现货少年郎(星球版）

Trend Investment A8 Experience on $BTC $ETH $SOL $DOGE Two hundred pieces of advice from trend investment experts, taking the essence and discarding the dross. 31. Avoid betting on events with low probabilities, and focus on those with high probabilities. If the probabilities are about even, maintain the status quo.~ 32. Because I am bearish on the overall market (it will rebound and fluctuate, but overall it is downward, as detailed in previous discussions), I received some discussions and feedback, including opportunities for buying and selling points, as well as overall blockchain market opportunities, long-term cycles, etc. Here, I want to use an example from my past to illustrate.~ ① This group chat record is from mid-March 2018 when I started bottom-fishing for rebounds, sharing with my friends. By comparing the timeline, you can see it was around the lowest point at that time, with most cryptocurrencies rebounding by late April and early May (some of my cryptocurrencies rebounded until late May and early June). At that time, I also felt that 2018 might not repeat 2014, as the market size and so-called innovations were not comparable. ② Although looking at the longer cycle, the position at that time was still very low, and if we didn’t make short-term trades, as long as everyone held on to even this position now, the profits would still be considerable, especially for the platform coins I was very optimistic about (ignoring the quirky style at that time). However, the second half of 2018 still experienced a brutal and continuous decline, culminating in the black swan of the hash war, the final blow in the bear market! Bitcoin fared better, halving, but Ethereum was left with only one-fifth. ③ Therefore, even though we are in a very long positive cycle, as long as your assets are not large enough to significantly impact the market (buying leads to a surge, selling leads to a drop), I believe there are opportunities to make trend trades~ Note, this is not short-term, but medium to long-term trends. Of course, this requires individuals to have a certain level of ability; if not, rather than chasing highs and cutting losses, or just listening around, it’s better to dollar-cost average. 33. Regarding summaries, I think whether successful or failed, if it’s just an emotional outburst, then I believe it has little significance. What’s important is whether one can gain something from it, such as whether successful experiences can be replicated, and whether failures can be avoided in the future. Or whether it can provide others with some reference points, rather than just bragging or seeking sympathy. 34. Speaking of the issue of monetary easing and interest rate hikes. I had a viewpoint in 2020… This round of DeFi was driven by the U.S. monetary easing. With this large influx of liquidity, the DeFi sapling was able to thrive. Similarly, if the liquidity is not provided, the DeFi tree (which has not yet matured) will face a lack of water and need to contract to protect itself.

Trend Investment A8 Experience on $BTC $ETH $SOL $DOGE Two hundred pieces of advice from trend investment experts, taking the essence and discarding the dross. 26. Whether in the classical or modern camp of the crypto world, no one will directly say they are optimistic about a specific coin's future, but they will say they are optimistic about the future of blockchain, Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.! However, those who say they are optimistic about the future of NFTs lack direction; almost no one dares to predict the future of a specific NFT because everyone knows it’s purely a jpg speculation right now. 27. Some people are quite strange; during the entire upward trend from 2019 to 2021, many early adopters were hesitant, especially in the U.S. after the pandemic led to massive monetary easing. It was obvious that this would bring a big market trend, yet they still worried about the market and sold off their holdings early! Later, when the U.S. tightened liquidity, they informed everyone that a bear market was not guaranteed and that there could still be a better market. The core essence of the capital market's ups and downs is liquidity! 28. In fact, regardless of everyone’s views, the key is to have your own logical framework, analyze the direction with a higher probability under your logic, and then formulate corresponding plans and execute them. Never just follow the crowd, constantly changing your thoughts and strategies. 29. I previously summarized a very insightful secondary indicator for a friend?? If a leading exchange continuously lists coins without a secondary wealth effect (non-IEO), it indicates that the overall market's secondary liquidity is really poor, because even Binance isn't making you money anymore~ This indicator has a certain lag, but once identified, reducing positions will definitely not be wrong, and the market will continue to drop afterward. Over the past few years, my personal experience has shown that the most accurate and timely indicator is the emotional response of the market, but this requires a certain level of experience to judge. I’ll summarize it when I have time! 30. Is there a right or wrong in this area? Not really. I think it’s about which is better and which is more beneficial for making more money. Some people say Bitcoin is definitely in a bull market; if we relax the decline criteria, then Bitcoin and Ethereum have been in a bull market since their inception, and they will continue to be in the future! I think most of us have not reached a point where our buying and selling can directly influence the market price significantly, right? So, why not engage in some trend trading to earn more money?

Trend Investment A8 Experience Sharing $BTC $ETH $SOL $DOGE Two hundred pieces of experience from trend investment experts, taking the essence and discarding the dross. 22. Some people believe that the reason $BTC will not experience another four-year cycle is that Bitcoin has mostly been mined and is almost entirely in circulation, making the subsequent halving effect minimal and negligible. Regardless of whether another cycle will occur, this reasoning alone is completely unfounded. Has the circulating supply of Bitcoin changed significantly from 20 years ago to now? Very little, right? Yet the price has experienced a significant change? 23. Every bear?? bull market will give rise to numerous opportunities; the question is what kind of opportunities you excel at seizing! To speak without conscience, some people are good at making money without morals, and of course, some believe this is a skill! Some can earn money through hard work, like earning from airdrops! Some are just good at trading for profit! Some can make money through primary investments! Regardless, what you need is to find a way to make money that you are good at and feel comfortable with. 24. When summarizing your investment successes and failures, do not casually conclude that you missed out on opportunities you knew could make money but underestimated or were too lazy to pursue, leading to not earning or earning less. As I mentioned earlier, if you knew Bitcoin would definitely double tomorrow, wouldn’t you invest everything you have now? Such conclusions can create an illusion, making you think you can earn that kind of money, but they are of no help to your future operations. 25. Do not blindly trust anyone's advice unless you have known them for a long time and this person has publicly provided advice that is generally effective and rarely emotional. Generally speaking, the more advice there is, the more examples of mistakes there will be.

Good night, tomorrow I can earn quickly again and stake my $OKB.