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The AI boom is being realized layer by layer along the industry chain. Marvell exceeded expectations, Dell's AI server orders surged by 757%, Micron broke through the $1000 mark—not isolated good news, but a chain of mutual confirmations. Those selling shovels, making shovels, and storing data are all booming. Now all eyes are on NVIDIA. It is not just a chip supplier but the pricing anchor for the entire AI computing demand. Once guidance confirms that the demand gap is still widening, the boom will pass from hardware infrastructure to cloud services and software layers. But the longer the chain, the narrower the margin for error. The market has already priced in very high growth expectations, and any slight slowdown could trigger a reverse resonance along the chain. NVIDIA's earnings report is both a baton and a magnifying glass. It will either confirm the long-term logic of AI infrastructure or cool down the expectations that have already begun to be overdrawn. #美股洞察：美光科技夜盘突破$1000

Powell is not talking about inflation this time; he directly warns that the Federal Reserve's political independence is being eroded. The transmission chain is not complicated. Once the Fed is seen as a White House appendage, the "risk-free" label on U.S. Treasuries will be discounted. Once the anchor loosens, capital will seek alternatives without sovereign backing. BTC has recently been consolidating around 74K. Many people focus only on the bearish outlook due to interest rate hike expectations but overlook another dimension—the credit risk of U.S. Treasuries. If the market begins to systematically question the Fed's independence, BTC's "digital gold" narrative will be reactivated—not competing with gold for safe haven status, but competing with U.S. Treasuries for the role of "credit hedge." This risk is currently underestimated. In the short term, trading is still focused on stagflation and rate hikes, with BTC falling alongside risk assets. What the market is pricing now is inflation; what it hasn't priced in yet is trust. And once trust loosens, it is harder to repair than inflation. #鲍威尔就美联储独立性问题发出警告

Whether the agreement is signed depends on whether the Revolutionary Guard gives the nod. The text at the negotiation table is progressing, but Iran is two-faced. The elected government negotiates terms, while the Revolutionary Guard strikes a pose. The former wants sanctions lifted for some breathing room, the latter lives off the "anti-American" narrative—control of the strait, oil smuggling, drone exports are all the Guard's cash machines. The agreement threatens its foundation. In the draft, Iran gained a lot, but the Revolutionary Guard says the strait is "still closed." This is not just stubbornness; it's a showdown: you sign your name, I close my gate. The Supreme Leader is caught in the middle. He needs to lift sanctions to stabilize public sentiment, but the Guard is the regime's safety lock. History is clear—when internal and external pressures clash, he ultimately sides with the Guard. The prospects of the agreement don't depend on how close the text is, but on how much the Guard can get from it. If enough, it might come to fruition; if not, it's all worthless paper. The market prices the text, but the real variable has never been at the negotiation table. Negotiations are negotiations, the military is the military. #美伊谈判：双方态度仍强硬

Short positions are being withdrawn, spot positions remain unchanged—Loracle is trying to find a way out for itself, but this step might be a springboard. Short positions have been cut from 108 million to 60 million, losing nearly 47.4 million in 18 days. Continuing to hold means bleeding every day; closing all means admitting defeat. So it chooses a compromise—reduce short positions to stop the bleeding, keep spot positions to observe. Those 893,000 spot tokens are the real trump card. If this batch is transferred on-chain to continue going long, the market will interpret it as "the biggest short surrender," sentiment will instantly reverse, and there will be another surge beyond the new high. If it’s for slowly selling off, then the new high is the best window to unload, with every pump quietly offloading. I lean towards the former. It’s already closing short positions; continuing to dump would be slapping itself in the face. A more reasonable path is gradually shifting positions, turning from short to long—not necessarily out of conviction, but because the cost of continuing to short at this level is too high. So in the short term, the spot positions staying put is a reassurance. Once they move, and the direction is on-chain going long, that’s the final confirmation of short surrender. The new high is not the end, but the start of turnover. #HYPE再次突破历史新高 $HYPE

Policy is a fast variable, implementation is a slow variable. Effective June 1, but the market won't react fully the next day. The first phase is sentiment pricing, completed within a few weeks. USDC-related protocols are quickly hyped, but this is expected speculation, not real money flow. The second phase is compliance review, lasting at least 3 to 6 months. FSA will recognize equivalence one by one; reserve transparency, audit compliance, and anti-money laundering cannot be neglected. The third phase is actual integration, taking 6 to 12 months or even longer. The conservatism of Japan's financial system means bank integration won't be fast. So the time gap is at least two to three quarters. Don't rush to chase policy benefits; the fast part is sentiment, the slow part is infrastructure. Sentiment can be priced in advance, infrastructure must be built piece by piece. #日本承认外国信托型稳定币

Within 48 hours, tough talk will arrive before the agreement. The Revolutionary Guard saying the Strait is "still closed" is meant for domestic audiences. Hegseth saying the military option is reserved is meant for Tehran and the hawks in Congress. Both sides are using military statements to protect the negotiation space. But the real agreement text is quietly moving forward—unfreezing timelines, navigation rules, crisis hotlines; these won’t appear in public statements. So the most likely scenario in the next 48 hours: public escalation of military threats combined with technical progress on the agreement text. One side makes tough statements on camera, the other revises drafts behind the scenes. The market will first be startled by the military rhetoric, oil prices will pulse, and BTC will follow down. But if no substantial military action follows within 48 hours, the panic will subside, and progress on the agreement will regain pricing power. This is not peace; it’s a "war that can’t be fought" tacitly arranged as a double act. #美伊谈判：特朗普收紧协议条款

69.90 USD, this price level is not a support, but a trigger point. Positioning early is a bet that Loracle's ammunition will run out earlier than the market expects. He has already been selling HYPE, closing BTC shorts, and compressing other exposures to survive, but the liquidation line for the $100 million short position is right ahead; every dollar pushed up burns through one layer of margin. Getting in early can capture the full short squeeze bonus but also bears the risk of the shorts' last counterattack. Entering after the forced liquidation confirmation offers a higher margin of safety. Once liquidation triggers, the $100 million short position instantly converts into market buy orders, and the price will quickly break through $70, but the real risk-reward ratio is already determined at the moment the liquidation cascade releases. My choice: wait for the explosion sound. Not to chase the price breaking $70, but to observe the absorption strength after the first batch of profit-taking is digested once liquidation starts. If the price can hold above $70 without collapsing after liquidation, it means the willingness to take over is strong enough, and entering then is not too late. The new giant whale dares to build a position $1.81 away from the trigger point, betting not on direction but on how many more seconds the shorts can hold. For retail investors, waiting for the outcome of this endurance race before joining is safer than rushing in during the last few seconds. #HYPE多空博弈白热化：新巨鲸押注 $BTC $HYPE

The global compliance puzzle for stablecoins is missing only the final piece The US GENIUS Act, the EU MiCA, and Japan's new regulations—three major economies have successively legislated within two years, systematically stamping stablecoins as "infrastructure." This is a systemic positive for USDC. Circle has established a payment network in over 190 countries, and Japan's new regulations directly give the green light to its trust structure. This is a stress test for USDT. Audit progress and reserve transparency have long been questioned; the entry thresholds in the three major economies are "reserve transparency and audit compliance," so Tether must first open its books to get in. The two major stablecoins are accelerating their divergence—USDC benefits from compliance premiums, while USDT defends its market share. But regardless of who leads, the status of stablecoins as compliant infrastructure has been globally confirmed. The puzzle is missing the last piece: mutual recognition standards across jurisdictions. #日本承认外国信托型稳定币

The draft was just leaked, and Trump immediately tightened the screws. The leaked memorandum shows that Iran obtained the right to define navigation routes and collect navigation fees, and the U.S. side also promised to unfreeze $12 billion. The version is quite favorable to Iran. But Trump's reaction was not to continue negotiations, but to directly tighten the terms and express concerns about the unfrozen funds. On the same day, Defense Secretary Hegseth reserved the option to restart military strikes, and Trump added at midnight: "If it is unfair to the U.S., military means will be used again." This is not a tug-of-war. The concessions in the draft cannot pass the domestic political level at all. The agreement is frozen in a "near completion" state, and the bottom lines of both sides have not truly met. The leak itself may be a test—to gauge Iran's bottom line and domestic reactions. The draft is real, but the distance to signing is farther than the ink on paper. #美伊谈判：特朗普收紧协议条款

This is not following the trend; it's directly nailing the coffin shut on the shorts. The new giant whale opened a position at $68.09, just $1.81 away from Loracle's $69.90 liquidation price, clearly not bottom fishing but forcing a short squeeze. How to calculate the odds? First, see how much ammo the shorts have left. Loracle has already sold 616,000 $HYPE to top up margin, spending $36.76 million to stay alive, and there were reports at dawn of starting to close BTC and other short positions. Bullets are running low, and the front line is shrinking. Next, look at the long reinforcements. The ICE CEO proactively contacted the Hyperliquid team, ETFs continue to see net inflows, and institutional base holdings remain firm. This is not a single whale betting; it's an entire buying force pushing. If Loracle's margin runs out near $70, the $100 million short position forced liquidation will instantly become buying pressure—the higher the price rises, the more liquidations occur, the stronger the buying, triggering a chain reaction that will ignite a short squeeze. The odds are not low, conservatively estimated at 70%. After liquidation triggers, it also depends on how fast profit-taking runs. If there is heavy cashing out lurking in the $65 to $68 range, the sharp rally might just be a short-term firework. But the new giant whale’s entry point is very precise—not chasing a breakout but adding leverage at the critical point. This trade is not betting on direction but on how many more seconds the shorts can hold. #HYPE多空博弈白热化：新巨鲸押注