机灵的杰尼君
机灵的杰尼君
Trader who has crossed bulls and bears for 8 years, is good at mainstream BTC and other mainstreams, X:@Meta8Mate
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OKX's Pizza Day merchandise has arrived,
Opening the gift box feels like traveling back to that summer 16 years ago when 10,000 $BTC were spent on two pizzas.
10,000 BTC, at today's price, is 1.1 billion dollars,
the most expensive two pizzas in human history.
But then again,
maybe without that transaction back then, BTC might still just be a bubble today.
Thanks to @okxchinese for the merchandise,
Happy Pizza Day everyone! 🍕
#OKXPizzaDay
OKX中文
🍕 On 2010.5.22, someone bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTC. At that time, no one knew this pizza would be written into history.
16 years later, OKX is giving pizzas to those in the industry who deserve to be remembered, and to you who have been with us all along.
Today, it's not about luck, it's about speed! Use the hashtag OKXPizzaDay, retweet this post, and click the Twitter link below to join OKX Agent Pizza Day. 200 pizza vouchers + 50 pizza festival gift boxes are available on a first-come, first-served basis.
Do you know why $ETH has been so weak recently?
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a recent low,
about to face the $2000 defense battle again,
so what is the founder, little V @VitalikButerin, up to?
World computer? NO!
World pile driver? YES!
As $BTC was resisted at $82K and pulled back to around $77K,
Jieni's latest "Carving the Sword on the Boat" data is here again.
Based on the past 10 daily candles, predicting the next 10 daily candles,
the historical probability of an increase is 60%, with an average return of -1.07%.
So... it went up, but it kind of didn’t? 🤣
机灵的杰尼君
Recently, $BTC has clearly struggled to rise,
so let's use Jenny's "Carving the Boat to Seek the Sword" tool
to check the possible trend for the next 20 4-hour candles.
Currently, the historical probability of an increase is 40%, with an average return of 1.04%.
It seems $BTC might be reaching a short-term top,
as the $82K resistance at the EMA 200 has been tested multiple times without success,
so it's best to respect the primary trend.
Friendly reminder: a low long position ≠ shorting.
It turns out Elon Musk @elonmusk secretly accumulated 18,712 $BTC again.
SpaceX disclosed in its S-1 IPO filing to the SEC:
As of the end of March, it held 18,712 BTC, with a total cost of $661 million, an average price of about $35,000,
Current market price is 77K → unrealized profit of about $630 million.
Combined with Tesla's previously disclosed 11,509 BTC, plus SpaceX's 18,712 BTC, Musk's companies hold a total of over 30,000 BTC.
He really, loved it! 🫡
Last time I said this is not a bull market, just a rebound within a bear market,
so it dropped from $82K to $75K. This bear market is really coming fast.
According to data from @coinglass_com,
those who entered in the past 30 days have a cost basis at 78.2K, currently all at a floating loss.
They were originally a support force, but after breaking down, they have instead become selling pressure overhead.
The real support below might be the cost line of those from February to April at $71.4K.
So the new range is likely to oscillate between 71.4K and $84K,
neither up nor down, the most frustrating market.
Historically, this situation has repeated many times,
until one day, it really breaks through and doesn't come back.
Unfortunately, that day is not today.
机灵的杰尼君
As $BTC rebounds from the flash crash bottom at $60K back up to $80K,
the market is broadly improving:
ETFs continue to see net inflows, Coinbase spot turns bullish,
Hyperliquid long positions hit the highest since the end of 2025.
But Glassnode's latest report throws cold water on this:
Realized Cap monthly net inflow is only $2.8 billion,
while the previous bull market start saw $10 billion+ per month,
$2.8 billion is enough to support a rebound, but not a breakout.
What's more interesting is:
If $60K is indeed the bottom,
this would be the shallowest bear market in BTC history,
with Relative Unrealized Loss only reaching 25% during the February flash crash,
much lower than the extreme readings at historical bottoms.
The good news is no one is deeply trapped,
the bad news is those who should have been washed out haven't been.
To translate:
Market sentiment has shifted from fear back to neutral/uncertain,
but it is far from a bull market start, more like a major rebound within a bear market.
Ah, ascending to immortality.
Ah, ascending to immortality again, why did I say again?
Damn, it's about to ascend again, my lady, come out with the Bull Demon King to see the Lord!
How many times has it been?
Every time $HYPE moves,
$ASTER has a small pull,
then slowly falls back to the starting point.
Numb now,
would setting a grid between $0.6~$0.8 make a killing?
An uptrend only has one chance to buy at the highest point,
Buying at any other time is correct;
A downtrend only has one chance to buy at the lowest point,
Buying at any other time will result in a loss!
Chasing the high is the best way to catch the bottom!
机灵的杰尼君
It feels like $HYPE is going to be the first top ten market cap token to hit a new ATH in this bear market.
With all kinds of positive news, it has risen nearly 30% in 6 days, only 19% away from its all-time high.
a16z bought $90 million in January, Coinbase and Circle teamed up with Hyperliquid, Bitwise and 21Shares launched $HYPE ETFs simultaneously, and TradFi has already prompted CME Group and ICE to jointly apply pressure.
If the glory of the last cycle’s platform tokens belonged to $BNB,
this round definitely belongs to $HYPE.
Oh no, have I become a HYPE shill?
Damn, chasing the high is the best way to bottom buy! 🫡
It feels like $HYPE is going to be the first top ten market cap token to hit a new ATH in this bear market.
With all kinds of positive news, it has risen nearly 30% in 6 days, only 19% away from its all-time high.
a16z bought $90 million in January, Coinbase and Circle teamed up with Hyperliquid, Bitwise and 21Shares launched $HYPE ETFs simultaneously, and TradFi has already prompted CME Group and ICE to jointly apply pressure.
If the glory of the last cycle’s platform tokens belonged to $BNB,
this round definitely belongs to $HYPE.
Oh no, have I become a HYPE shill?
Damn, chasing the high is the best way to bottom buy! 🫡
Since the beginning of this year, there has been a significant divergence among BTC treasury companies.
Still buying:
Strategy dumped $2 billion to add 24,869 BTC, total holdings now 843,738 BTC, continuing to go all in.
Starting to sell:
MARA sold 20,880 BTC ($1.5 billion) in Q1 to pivot to AI infrastructure, losing $1.3 billion;
Exodus sold 1,076 BTC ($87 million) in Q1;
Nakamoto sold 284 BTC ($22 million) in Q1, with a Q1 loss of $239 million;
Metaplanet lost $725 million in Q1 and postponed preferred stock issuance.
Previously, the market treated all BTC treasury companies as one asset class, but now distinctions must be made:
Who is still accumulating vs. who has started selling off.
The peak breeds false supporters, the dusk witnesses the true apostles!
The grand Silicon Valley drama has ended,
Elon Musk @elonmusk sued OpenAI @OpenAI for $150 billion,
The jury dismissed it in less than 2 hours.
The 9 jurors of the California federal court unanimously ruled: the statute of limitations has expired,
Meaning Musk knew about OpenAI's structural changes back in 2021, but waited until 2024 to sue, which was too late.
Summary of the 11-day trial highlights:
① Musk himself pushed for OpenAI to become profitable back then — on the condition that he would lead it, even proposing to merge OpenAI into Tesla; after being rejected, he turned hostile and left.
② Musk and Zuckerberg privately exchanged texts discussing "joining forces to acquire OpenAI."
③ Altman testified before Congress that he has no equity in OpenAI — the lawyer asked on the spot: "You indirectly hold shares through YC, what does that count as?" Altman: "I thought everyone knew what it means to be a passive investor in a VC fund." Lawyer retorted: "Do you really think Congress members understand that?"
④ OpenAI's lawyer closing argument: "The essence of this lawsuit is to use hypocrisy to take down a competitor they can't beat."
To translate:
Musk donated $38 million → wanted to be the boss → was rejected → left → started xAI to compete → then sued his old company for betraying its original mission → claimed $150 billion → jury dismissed in 2 hours.
The biggest legal obstacle for OpenAI's IPO is cleared, current valuation $852 billion, IPO target hitting $1 trillion.
SpaceX is also going public, two former partners, one racing to a trillion in AI, the other in space.
If they had really merged back then, the picture would be too beautiful to imagine.🫡
