粤大魔

A bunch of breaking news is hitting all at once, geopolitical and industry upheavals—are you feeling uneasy about your positions? Loud explosions have been reported directly from the Strait of Hormuz. The US military has launched a real strike against southern Iran. Official statements uniformly describe it as a defensive self-defense operation. The US command has publicly confirmed it. They directly sank two Iranian Revolutionary Guard minesweeper vessels and took out multiple missile sites. Tensions on both sides have instantly tightened; the Strait is already a high-risk area. If the situation continues to escalate, asset volatility is inevitable. Interestingly, Trump's stance shows quite a contrast. He still claims publicly that there is room for negotiation progress and hasn’t completely shut the door. Market changes are also visible to the naked eye. The two-year US Treasury yield has dropped directly to 4.05%. Safe-haven funds are quietly moving in. Another shocking piece of news that has rocked the community today: Ondo Finance’s founder has unexpectedly passed away. As a core leading project in the RWA sector, this sudden event will inevitably affect the token’s price movement. Short-term market volatility is basically unavoidable. On the tech front, there’s a bright turnaround. Anthropic was the first to report quarterly profits, breaking the long-standing perception of losses. Global stock markets are also showing strong performance. South Korea’s composite index surged to 8100 points, hitting a historic high with strong capital clustering. This evening, various news items are piling up: geopolitical conflicts, industry upheavals, corporate profits, stock market highs. With multiple news factors overlapping, the market is very likely to experience fluctuations going forward. How are your holdings doing? Do you think the Middle East situation will escalate further? What are your predictions for the RWA market’s next moves? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments and hit save for market reference. #美伊谈判博弈 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

A bunch of major events squeezed into the same night: geopolitics, black swans, personnel changes, regulatory disputes all came together. I filtered out all the messy garbage info and will only talk about the real stuff that affects our holdings and the market trend. 🔥 The US-Iran situation keeps tugging back and forth, and market risk-off sentiment has been triggered again. Previously agreed, the US-Iran ceasefire deal was extended by 60 days. The Strait of Hormuz navigation resumed, and the market initially breathed a sigh of relief. But the reversal came unexpectedly. The US military directly struck southern Iran, a so-called self-defense attack. The situation instantly tightened again. This kind of back-and-forth tugging means the market will definitely experience repeated volatility going forward. 💥 Huge RWA shock! Ondo founder suddenly passed away Those involved in crypto US bonds and the RWA sector basically all saw this news tonight. Ondo founder Nathan Allman passed away. The former president immediately took over as CEO to temporarily stabilize the team and project. Ondo is considered a solid, established player in the space. The departure of a core founder has a significant emotional impact on the entire RWA sector, so we must keep monitoring. ✨ Hyperliquid powers forward again, expanding its ecosystem another step Hyperliquid is getting more stable and mature. Officially launched an off-chain event prediction market. No longer just a simple contract track, the gameplay and ecosystem scenarios are becoming richer. In the long run, this is definitely positive for the HL ecosystem and market heat. ⚖️ Stablecoin debate explodes! Is it a risk or a scapegoat? Tonight’s biggest controversy in the circle is about stablecoins. The Wall Street Journal directly named stablecoins as private money, posing risks to the financial system. But on the other side, big players pushed back hard. The CEO of ETF Store bluntly said: stablecoins are not the source of economic risk at all. The two sides have completely opposing views. Future regulatory trends and market sentiment will very likely ferment from here. 💰 Traditional capital entry strategies are really worth referencing Don’t just keep staring at altcoins and meme coins soaring and crashing. Look at how real institutional money plays. Strategy CEO invested $250,000 in STRC. Returns directly hit 10 times their own mortgage interest rate. Simply put, traditional big money now favors steady dividend tracks in crypto, and this trend hasn’t changed. 🚨 Key warning! $3 million theft incident, don’t panic blindly Tonight’s biggest security black swan left many stunned. SquidRouter was hacked. 86 wallets were affected, with nearly $3 million stolen in total. Here’s a clear explanation to avoid mindless missing out or blind panic. This attack has nothing to do with Squid’s core protocol or main contract. Funds of regular users and legitimate integrated partners are safe. The problem was with a third-party routing module, not the project itself, so don’t get misled into panic selling. Tonight’s overall market news is mixed. There are sector positives, geopolitical uncertainties, and security risk zones. How the market moves next basically depends on digesting this batch of news. Are you holding positions or staying out? Do you feel the market will continue to oscillate or shift? $BTC $ETH $HYPE

5.25 $ETH Evening Market Just took another look at Ethereum, looks like it broke through, but don’t believe it. That candle close is really ugly, with a very long upper shadow. When I see a candle like that, it makes me uneasy—it means there are a lot of sellers above, forcibly pushing it back down. So if it really wants to rise, it has to break through the tough resistance between 2131 and 2144 with strong volume. If it can’t break through, talk about 2158 or 2193 is nonsense. The current momentum is just a rebound, still far from a reversal, so don’t get too excited. Another thing I’m concerned about: look at that recent rally, the candlesticks are moving up but volume is shrinking. This kind of volume contraction on a rise makes me uneasy—it feels weak. Like you haven’t eaten enough, how far can it really run? Without volume pushing it up, it will eventually fall back. If you want to go long, wait for a strong volume breakout above 2125, then I’ll follow, targeting 2158. If you want to short, if it drops below 2099 with volume, then I know the bulls are scared and I’ll flip to short. The major cycle bottom line on the 4-hour chart is 2092; if it breaks, the bulls are in trouble, and then we’ll watch the 2057 to 2007 area. The 4-hour chart still holds some hope. Yesterday it looked like it would break down, but it wobbled and pulled back, even standing above the descending trendline. As long as it holds above that line, there’s still hope for a push. But 2197 above is a big hurdle; if it can’t get past that, it will just oscillate back and forth, wearing people down. Tonight, just watch these key points. If there’s a signal, jump in; if not, just watch the show. Capital is here, opportunities are here, don’t force it. $ETH $BTC

2.25$BTC Evening Market Update Tonight, the US market is closed, so there's no volume. The market can be summed up in one word: grinding. On the hourly chart, BTC finally did something worthwhile, breaking through the long-pressing descending trendline, then obediently retesting it to confirm support before bouncing up to break through 77287. The price is now hovering above this level. For the next move, keep a close eye on 78543. This is a tough resistance level; if it can be broken with volume, this rebound can aim for the 1:1 measured target around 79313. If it struggles or weakens at that point, a pullback could happen anytime. As long as the pullback doesn't break the bullish trendline, it's considered a normal retracement—no need to panic at a single bearish candle. But if that trendline breaks, there's a high chance the price will drop to test 76000. If it holds there, consolidation and another chance to push higher might come. If 76000 breaks directly, then no more discussion—look for previous lows. The daily chart deserves special attention as it shows the big picture. The daily MACD is still below zero, so don’t call a bull market just because of a two-day rebound. This is a bear trend rebound, not a reversal. We can even see this bounce from 74200 as a retracement after breaking the strong support at 73711. So, the ceiling near 79410 is the real bull-bear dividing line. Only with volume and a stable break above can MACD climb back above zero, and bulls regain control, then have the capital to challenge the previous high at 82716. But if 79410 can’t be cleared and the price is pushed back, that’s a classic "failed retracement confirmation," and the price will definitely retest 73711. The next test will likely fail to hold, opening the door for the daily uptrend structure to collapse, with the next measured drop down to the trendline near 70000. This is not speculation; it’s the market’s script. Wait for a volume-backed bullish candle to hold above 77565 before chasing longs on the right side, targeting 78493 to 79227. If 77565 can’t be broken, just watch the longs. For shorts, watch 76959—if it breaks down with volume and fails to rebound, you can enter shorts targeting 75250 to 74224. On the 4-hour chart, a break below 76098 also points to this area. No US stocks tonight means liquidity dries up, making it easy for fake breakouts to trap those chasing pumps or dumps. So always look for "volume-backed" moves; low-volume rallies or dumps are just market manipulation. Stop losses are a must; don’t hold losing positions. In short, you can ride the short-term rebound for some gains, but always remember the daily bearish trend looming large. 79410 is the bull-bear dividing line; if it can’t be cleared, all rebounds are paper tigers. That’s about it. We’ll talk again if there’s new market action. Stay safe, brothers. $BTC $ETH $HYPE

🔥Major shake-up! ICE partners with OKX to launch crude oil contracts, traditional financial pricing power quietly enters the crypto space #纽交所母公司授权OKX推出原油合约 Honestly, this big event in the circle recently has really overturned many people's established perceptions. The veteran traditional financial giant actively opens the door and hands over the core commodity pricing power, causing the entire trading landscape to change. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the company behind the New York Stock Exchange, officially authorizes OKX to launch perpetual crude oil contracts, with prices directly pegged to the two mainstream crude oil futures, Brent and WTI. This is not just a simple listing of a new product. ICE truly controls the global benchmark pricing for crude oil. Its price movements influence global assets worth trillions. In the past, the pricing rights for such top-tier commodities would never be opened to crypto trading platforms. Taking this step now clearly shows that the core pricing power of traditional finance is gradually tilting towards the crypto market✨ The connection between the two parties was laid long ago. Earlier, ICE invested in OKX at a valuation of $25 billion and secured a board seat. This joint launch of crude oil contracts is just a substantive cooperation after deep integration. Currently, with the volatile US-Iran situation, oil prices fluctuate greatly. In conventional financial markets, crude oil leveraged trading has many rules and high entry barriers, making it difficult for ordinary people to participate easily. In contrast, crypto contracts have clear advantages: 24/7 trading, low entry barriers, and ample liquidity, perfectly meeting global investors' demand to speculate on oil prices. ICE values the platform's large user base and efficient trading model, using this to extend crude oil price influence to more traders. OKX gains hard asset endorsement and valuable compliance-related resources, boosting industry confidence. This development brings real changes for us traders. From now on, trading is no longer limited to mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, nor just a variety of niche tokens. Now, you can directly participate in core macro categories like crude oil, truly stepping into the core arena of global capital competition. Crude oil is just the beginning. Natural gas, gold, and various agricultural products will likely follow the same path and gradually enter the crypto market. At the same time, ICE's direct cooperation also sends a clear compliance signal. In the future, collaborations between traditional exchanges and crypto platforms will only become more frequent. ⚠️A sincere reminder: opportunities come with risks. Crude oil prices are influenced by geopolitical situations, oil-producing countries' decisions, inventory data, and more. The analysis logic is completely different from usual crypto trading and requires new judgment approaches. Plus, contracts come with forced liquidation and funding rate rules. With a highly volatile asset like crude oil, the risk of losses is amplified, so operate with extreme caution. This is not about crypto markets completely replacing traditional finance; it's essentially a mutually beneficial cooperation💼. Traditional giants need new liquidity channels to expand markets, while crypto platforms seek legitimate credentials to establish themselves. Both sides meet their needs and achieve cooperation, truly opening the door to cross-sector integration of commodities. For our daily trading, crude oil contracts are a good tool for hedging and risk management. But keep clear priorities in mind: The rule-making power still rests with ICE, while OKX mainly provides the trading venue. Before going long or short, make sure to understand the underlying rules and logic, and avoid blindly following trends. A brand-new macro trading track has officially opened. What are your thoughts on this major industry shift? $BZ $CL $BTC

5.25 $BTC $ETH Midday Market Update BTC triple top battle, when will ETH's slow decline end? BTC is acting the same as always. At the 76023 level, twice now, the bears tried to break through but failed both times, indicating there are definitely buyers holding the line below. But don’t be fooled by the pullback; the resistance at 77286 has seen three false breakouts—three times, folks. Doesn’t it feel like falling into the same trap three times? The hourly chart clearly shows a triple top, signaling a pullback. It’s stuck here, neither rising nor falling. Want to break the deadlock? Simple: show some strength, push volume to firmly break below 77286, then create a new top higher than the previous two. That’s the real move, the only way to challenge 78530. Otherwise, it’ll keep oscillating between 77286 and 76023, stabbing back and forth to wear people down. If 76023 breaks one day, the next stop is the previous low zone between 74200 and 74705. If that cracks, well, it’s serious business. · Long entry: Wait for a volume breakout above 77274, don’t get excited prematurely. · Short entry: If 76714 breaks and the price fails to rebound, go short. · Remember: Holding above 77274 targets 78398 and 79179; if the 4-hour chart breaks below 76065, look down to 74882–73759. ETH is weaker, nothing much to say. The previous bearish continuation pattern has already broken down. The lower boundary is now a ceiling overhead. See that long upper shadow shooting star candle? Bulls tried hard this afternoon but got slapped down by bears—that’s classic “effort wasted” price action. Unless it climbs back into the consolidation zone and reclaims 2145, the slow decline will continue, just grinding down. · Long entry: Small plays above 2112. · Safest: Wait for a break below 2092 to short, follow the trend. · For longs: Try holding 2055, but admit defeat if it breaks 2006. · For counter-trend bounce plays: Place an order at 1981, gamble on a wick, but cut losses if it breaks 1936. · For shorts: If there’s a sign of stagnation near 2147, act; if it breaks 2194, give up. This week also has US data coming out. Before the data, expect BTC to keep oscillating and ETH to slowly slip down. In this kind of market, less action is better—watch and wait for either a wick or a clear right-side signal. Don’t bet heavily in the middle of the range; grinding markets can wear down both your patience and capital. Wait it out, opportunities come from waiting, not forcing. $BTC $ETH

Let's talk today about the biggest bet of the year: the market versus Trump—who's really fooling whom? #特朗普称美伊协议"尚未完全谈妥" Flipping sides in less than 24 hours. On May 23, Trump happily tweeted that the deal with Iran was "basically done," and the Strait of Hormuz was about to open its doors. Sounds reliable, right? A dawn of peace was just ahead. But on May 24, after a night's sleep, the tone changed abruptly: "Not fully agreed yet! No rush, take it slow!" He even added a jab: "Those criticizing the deal haven't seen the details, just talking nonsense." What can change so much in such a short time? In the blink of an eye, US-Iran peace went from "imminent" to "logistics issues." He flips faster than a page. Even more extreme, while saying "not agreed yet," he still holds firm—blockades continue, gunfire persists. Xinhua reported clearly that on the 24th, US forces at the Strait of Hormuz fired warning shots at inbound ships; large oil tankers were immobilized. Peace on the lips, business in the hands. The Republicans are fighting among themselves first. Trump slammed the brakes because his backyard caught fire. Hardliners in the Republican Party exploded. Graham—Trump's golf buddy and staunch ally—publicly said the deal "is like a shot of adrenaline for Hezbollah." Cruz was harsher, saying if the result lets Iran "get money, continue uranium enrichment, and control the strait," it would be a "catastrophic mistake." The White House isn't taking it lightly either. White House Communications Director Zhang Zhenxi told former Secretary of State Pompeo to "shut his stupid mouth." Trump’s advisor called Cruz a "traitor undermining the president," to which Cruz fired back: "Those young political appeasers are useless to the president, shut up, adults are talking." Such public infighting within the same camp shows the Republican Party is in total chaos. Trump wanted to score a peace bonus before the midterms, but his own people put him on the hot seat. If he signs this deal, these folks could devour him in Congress. Iran is also sabotaging the deal. Trump said "the deal is basically done," but Iran immediately said—"Don't talk nonsense, nuclear issues are off the table." Iranian Parliament spokesman Rezaei clearly stated that core topics like nuclear technology and uranium enrichment are not even on the table with the US. Don't add drama. The Iranian Foreign Ministry also said current talks don't involve nuclear issues; that's for the next phase. As for the strait? Iran’s stance is even more definitive— even if the deal is signed, Iran will continue managing the Strait of Hormuz, "it won't return to pre-war conditions." Trump envisions "full opening + abandoning nuclear plans," while Iran offers "limited passage + nuclear issues discussed later." This gap isn’t something "a few more days of talks" can fix; they’re simply not on the same wavelength. But the market doesn’t care! It just rallies! The market’s reaction to this farce is surreal—you say your thing, I’ll rise mine. The Nikkei 225 took off, soaring over 1800 points in one day, up more than 3%, breaking the 65,000 mark for the first time, hitting a historic high. Japanese investors are probably popping champagne, thinking the strait opening will slash energy costs and revive manufacturing. Oil prices plunged. WTI crashed nearly 6% to $90.87/barrel, Brent dropped over 5%. The market seems to say, "Iranian oil will arrive tomorrow." But analysts tell the hard truth— even if the strait opens, clearing mines alone will take weeks, plus tanker arrivals, so supply restoration will take at least two to three months. The dollar didn’t stay idle either; the dollar index fell below 99 to a recent low. The logic chain: peace → oil price drop → inflation down → Fed rate hike pressure eases → dollar weakens. Almost perfect, except one small problem—the deal isn’t signed yet. In short, the market is experiencing classic "selective absorption"—Rubio says "seven or eight countries support this draft," so it’s fully accepted; Trump says "not agreed yet," so it’s ignored; Iran says "nuclear issues off the table," treated as background noise. More importantly, Hong Kong and South Korean markets are closed for Buddha’s Birthday, and US markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day, causing extremely low trading volume. A small amount of capital can wildly amplify gains. This isn’t rational pricing; it’s a collective market brain orgasm—any good news instantly triggers imagining a perfect outcome. What if talks collapse? Frankly, all current optimistic pricing is based on one assumption—"the deal will eventually be signed." What if it falls apart? WTI will likely surge back from $90 to $100 or higher, wiping out all recent "peace premium." Every penny of the Nikkei 225’s rise spells "peace dividend," which could vanish rapidly if oil reverses. The dollar would strengthen again amid rising inflation expectations and renewed rate hike bets. The three markets could reverse sharply overnight. The core issue is expectation mismatch—the market is celebrating at the finish line, but Trump and Iran are still glaring at each other at the start. Three possible outcomes: deal signed (medium-high probability, but the good news is priced in, possibly leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pullback); talks drag on (medium probability, ongoing conflict and negotiation, volatile swings); outright breakdown (low probability but high tail risk, peace premium will be violently unwound). None of these outcomes guarantee a "sure win"—those chasing highs now are essentially putting real money as collateral for Trump’s diplomatic credibility and Iran’s negotiation sincerity. Whether this trade is worth it, you decide. The market’s optimism has maxed out credit cards in advance, but no bad news has yet been accounted for. $BZ $BTC $ETH

The CFTC drama is like a live show of "palace intrigue + face-changing" in the crypto world. #CFTC官员因质疑特朗普关联公司遭清退 Here’s a quick highlight: Several officials were directly dismissed for raising compliance concerns about crypto platforms linked to the Trump family (Polymarket, Crypto.com, Gemini Titan, etc.). Immediately after, over 80 crypto enforcement cases during the Biden era shrank to just 2 in this term, and those were minor ones. At least 5 investigations were quietly dropped. Even more brazenly, the acting chair and senior legal counsel responsible for approvals then turned around and took high-paying jobs at crypto companies. That’s some serious intensity. The so-called "deregulation benefits" probably feel like a half-crazed euphoric high. In the short term, project teams are indeed relieved. No need to constantly dodge subpoenas from the SEC and CFTC, innovation can run wild, and speed is maxed out. But do you think there’s no glass shards in this candy? Enforcement dropping from 80+ cases to 2 is like burning all the referees’ red and yellow cards. Without whistleblowers, fake falls, dirty plays, and offsides will immediately run rampant. Low-quality projects and professional scammers will fill this vacuum at lightning speed. By the time the industry uses repeated blowups to "make up" for regulatory gaps, retail investors’ wallets and the industry’s reputation will already be ashes. This kind of deregulation essentially trades today’s compliance costs for tomorrow’s payday loans. Regulatory independence? This is clearly a "revolving door" show featuring pole dancing. After reviewing you, they go work as your executive—who wouldn’t praise such a smooth closed loop? Enforcement under Biden was fierce but at least pretended to be fair. Now, they don’t even bother pretending—you get fired for questioning the president’s family companies, and the person approving you might be your boss next year. When regulation becomes a favor-based system that "plays favorites," it’s devastating for the industry’s credibility in the long run. Institutional funds aren’t fools; once they see it’s a nepotism-driven market, their exit speed will surpass even Terra’s collapse. Senator Warren has already called for an investigation into whether the president’s family’s economic interests are influencing crypto policy—this fire will eventually burn back. Survival rules for projects: Don’t mistake political spring breezes for a permanent get-out-of-jail-free card. Political winds change faster than meme coins. Building your compliance system based on the mood of a single administration is like building a villa on sand. The right approach is: · Lock down baseline compliance—anti-money laundering, sanctions screening, asset custody—these are your underwear you can never lose, no matter what. A clean compliance record is your only life jacket in political storms. · Step up forward-looking compliance—don’t lie down just because the CFTC is easing up now. Structural legislation like the "Clear Act" is advancing in Congress, and the new coordination memorandum signed by the SEC and CFTC is not just for show. Build ahead of the upcoming standards, so when the gate closes, you hold the pass. · Treat compliance as a competitive barrier—while peers run naked in the rules, you do proper information disclosure, on-chain risk control, and asset segregation. Users and funds will vote with their feet. In the DeFi world, transparency is the best endorsement. Finally, a word for everyone: Regulatory easing doesn’t mean rules evaporate, and political umbrellas don’t keep out the rain. When lightning strikes, only those wearing compliance shorts can say, "I’m just swimming naked." $BTC $ETH $HYPE

$HYPE is really lively on-chain right now, with bulls, bears, and old whales all on the same stage, none giving way to the others. #HYPE多空博弈 Grayscale-related institutions have bought nearly 682,000 HYPE in the past week, roughly $34.9 million, completely indifferent to whether the price is near its all-time high. Bitwise and 21Shares, two spot ETFs, had a net inflow of $25.5 million on May 21 alone. Their logic for building positions might be simple: if you buy late, your position won’t be big enough. The stubborn short seller Loracle is still holding firm. A few days ago, he sold $36.76 million worth of spot HYPE to cover margin; his 5x short position now totals over $103 million. His unrealized loss once hit $23 million. The funniest part is, he placed a new $75 million short order around $64, right above where the old whale just dumped. This move is basically like telling the market: "Come at me!" Nansen’s data shows a top 100 holder suddenly reduced their position by 17.57%. Even more dramatic, an old whale who had been silent for eight months woke up and dumped 6.38 million USDC worth of assets around $63. Institutions are buying, whales are selling, and only Loracle is taking the hits. On May 29, another 14 million HYPE will unlock, including 6.6 million belonging to insiders. The unlocking drama is about to begin—will it continue to squeeze shorts or will the bears turn the tables? No one knows. $HYPE $BTC $ETH

V God’s biggest explosive response this time isn’t a long speech, just one sentence: I have 90% of my net worth in ETH, and I’ve donated all the rest. #V神回应卖币争议：基金会转型，减少卖出 What does this mean? It means your boss has directly tied his paycheck to the company account—if the company crashes, he crashes; if the company fails, he fails. Retail investors can cut losses and run, but he really can’t. This isn’t about faith or belief, it’s a deep physical-level binding. Looking at the Foundation’s recent moves, frankly, they’ve wised up after all the criticism. The community kept shouting "Don’t sell our coins," and EF finally laid their cards on the table: okay, okay, no more selling, from now on we’ll live off staking rewards. This is huge for the market. Previously, every time ETH rose, everyone watched EF’s wallets like guards against thieves. Now, the biggest obvious seller has disappeared, removing a big short-term selling pressure. Long term, it’s even more interesting. EF is actively pulling back, no longer acting as the "parent," and even V God himself says his influence inside is decreasing. This shows Ethereum no longer needs to rely on any individual or organization’s reputation to survive—this is what a truly mature public chain looks like. It used to be "Ethereum = EF + V God," now it’s "Ethereum = Ethereum." This shift is even more dramatic than a halving. As for whether ETH can take off, the market will decide. But at least now, with fewer dumpers and fewer hype sellers, what’s left is a real, hard-fought ecological competition. 💎🙌 $ETH $BTC $HYPE