美银警告美股行情过度集中：当前市场与2000年互联网泡沫顶部高度相似
BlockBeats 消息，6 月 1 日，美国银行首席投资策略师 Michael Hartnett 最新报告指出，当前美股市场结构与 2000 年互联网泡沫顶部阶段出现高度相似特征，投资者应警惕牛市后期风险并逐步转向防御性配置。
数据显示，标普 500 指数于 5 月最后一个交易日创下历史收盘新高，但仅有 20 只成分股同步刷新历史高点，其中大多数集中于人工智能及半导体相关领域。Hartnett 指出，2000 年 3 月互联网泡沫见顶时，同样仅有约 20 只股票创出新高。
近期美股涨势主要由 AI 产业链推动。5 月份，美光科技（MU）上涨 87.8%，SK 海力士上涨 81%，超威半导体（AMD）上涨 45.6%，三星电子上涨 43%。受此带动，纳斯达克综合指数在 4 月至 5 月两个月内累计上涨 25%，创下二十多年来最佳同期表现。
不过，多项市场广度指标正在走弱。BCA Research 数据显示，截至 5 月 20 日，仅约 55% 的标普 500 成分股位于 200 日均线上方；涨跌线（Advance-Decline Line）自 4 月中旬以来持续回落，显示指数创新高的同时，越来越少股票参与上涨。
Hartnett 认为，虽然市场投机热潮可能尚未结束，但央行政策收紧及高利率环境最终可能成为本轮牛市的转折点。他建议投资者逐步增加长期债券、防御性行业以及此前在泡沫末期表现落后的板块配置，以应对潜在市场回调风险。
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