The Market Has Stopped Asking When Cuts Come. Now It's Asking Whether Hikes Are Next. Six months ago the debate was how many cuts the Fed would deliver this year. That conversation is gone. The 30-year Treasury hit 5.20% this week, its highest since 2007. The 10-year is at 4.67%, a 12-month high. Swap markets now price 80%+ odds of at least one Fed hike by year-end. Nick Timiraos at the WSJ, the most closely-watched Fed signal in the room, says cut talk is effectively over. April FOMC minutes showed a committee in hold mode, but 3+ hawkish governors are openly pointing toward tightening again. The driver is inflation that won't quit. The Iran conflict has kept energy prices elevated, feeding into airfares, food, and supply chains. The labor market hasn't broken. The Fed has no clean off-ramp. For crypto this matters. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC and gold. BTC is already struggling below its 200-day moving average around $82K. Dollar strength adds to the headwind. This isn't 2022 conditions yet, but the macro backdrop is shifting in a direction the risk rally wasn't priced for. My honest take: a hike isn't confirmed, but the fact we're even having this conversation again changes the calculus. How are you thinking about positioning if rates keep climbing? Drop your thoughts in the comments 👇 #RateHikesBackOnTable @OKX Orbit $BTC $HYPE $ZEC